Team Capsules part ten

Stanford (26-7, 13-5) This year was finally the year Coach Trent Johnson came through with a top 15 team. Since Mike Montgomery left to coach the Golden State Warriors several years ago the Cardinals have not been the same. Of course it would take Johnson a couple years to bring the players in that he wanted. He finally has the personnel he was looking for, specifically seven foot twins Brook and Robin Lopez.

The Good: The Lopez twins have really come into their own this season, on the way receiving more national publicity. Brook, the more polished offensive player and better NBA prospect, made his case for Pac 10 player of the year, but fell just short to Kevin Love. He averaged 19 ppg along with 8.5 rpg and 2.2 blocks. Robin is the better defender, but isn’t nearly as capable on the block. Not too many teams will be able to match up with these two centers (even UCLA showed trouble at points). The Cardinals do a great job of getting each of them the ball on the block in a position to score. They utilize the high low very well, usually with Robin dumping it down to Brook (the two obviously show great chemistry). Other than the Lopez brothers Anthony Goods and Lawrence Hill are the two main scoring options. Goods is a little bit of a chucker; he took 170 threes this year and only made 60 of them. Hill is a little more versatile but not a great shooter either (41% from the field). PG Mitch Johnson is vastly underrated. I like his game. He controls the tempo of the game, usually at a very slow pace when both Lopez brothers are on the floor. He rebounds very well for a guard and doesn’t turn the ball over too much. He is a crafty lefty.

The Bad: They play a very deliberate, walk it up the court game, which can work to their advantage sometimes, but leaves them helpless if they fall behind. They don’t have one very good three point shooter. What worries me most is that once they fall behind they won’t be able to come back. Of course it won’t be easy for any team to open up a lead against them, but nonetheless, having no real three point threat will hurt them.

The Verdict: In this age of college basketball, a team is only as good as its backcourt. Even though I think Mitch Johnson is a good player, he is not the guy to take them to the final 4. You need a guard that can dominate a game with his penetration or extend the defense with his ability to shoot. Stanford doesn’t have that player. It was evident against UCLA when Darren Collison lit them up for 28, getting to the basket at will. Stanford had no answer for him. I like this team to get to the Sweet 16 but no further.



Duke (27-5, 13-3): This is not your father’s Duke team. It’s not even your older brother’s. Yeah, Coach K is still there, Dawkins is still there, Wojo is still there. But they’re an interesting and different team because they don’t have that one post player who they would go to for a big bucket in the past. I’m talking about guys like Laettner, Cherokee Parks, Danny Ferry, Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, and Shelden. This team gets by with four guards on the court at times, and Coach K has done some of his finest work getting his Dukies back to the top ten where CBB needs them.

The Good: They have the best basketball coach in the world. They cause all sorts of matchup problems when they bring Jon Scheyer in off the bench. They’ll spread you out and make you pay for any poor closeouts by driving right by you. They have four guys that will kill you from beyond the arc, especially Greg Paulus. This team makes a living off of drive and kicks and does like to push the tempo. They will never get blown out because each player gives full effort on the defensive end. 6-8 forward Kyle Singler should have a great tournament because not too many teams have centers that can step all the way out to the 3 point line and stay in a stance.

The Bad: They have no inside presence. No one on the team averages a block a game and Demarcus Nelson, a 6-4 guard, is their leading rebounder. For this reason, the Blue Devils will struggle mightily against any sort of talented big on the block, i.e. Tyler Hansbrough. If I were an opposing coach I wouldn’t let Paulus or Scheyer get an open look, forcing them to put it on the floor. At the same time I’d force Gerald Henderson and Singler to shoot, something neither has proven they can do consistently (32% and 34% respectively from 3).

The Verdict: Pretty much every year you can pencil Duke into the Sweet 16. They’ve done it seven out of the last 8. This year is no different. I have them advancing to the round of 16, before succumbing to Xavier’s balanced attack.



Boise State (25-8, 12-4) Boise State is 2-1 against teams in the field of 65 this year. The two wins came against San Diego and BYU, both at home in the first half of the season. They lost to Washington State by 12 in the second game of the season. The Broncos are one of the most lethal offensive teams in the nation, averaging 81.2 ppg while shooting 51.5 % as a team. They can put points up in a hurry and were awarded the 14th seed in the East Region.

The Good: This team can score. They were one of only four teams to put up 70 on Washington State in regulation. The other three were UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona, all tournament teams. Behind the play of star 6-6 forward Reggie Larry (19.6 ppg 9.3 rpg) the Broncos outscored teams all year. They are equipped with size too and should not be overpowered by Louisville’s front line.

The Bad: They are going to have lots of trouble staying with Louisville guards Jerry Smith, Edgar Sosa, and Andre Mcgee. They turn the ball over too much, almost 16 a game, and will have plenty of trouble with Rick Pitino’s 2-2-1 press if they can’t do a better job valuing the basketball.

The Verdict: I say Louisville beats them by 15. They’ll keep it close in the first half, and Reggie Larry will get his, but Louisville is too talented and does too good a job of pressuring to let this game slip away.




Cal State Fullerton (24-8, 12-4) The Titans have had quite a season out in the Big West conference. They locked down their first NCAA tournament birth since 1978 with a 15 point win over UC Irvine just two days ago. They are one of the more interesting teams because they are very undersized. They do not play anyone over 6-6 but manage to hold their own on the glass. If they are to have any chance at knocking off Wisconsin, they will need stellar play from their 5-11 point guard Josh Akognon, a transfer from Washington St.

The Good: If you are going to get away with such a small team, you need to make up for it in other areas, especially the 3 point arc. Cal St. Fullerton made 278 threes this year. That’s 8.7 a game. Most of them came from Akognon and his backcourt mate Marcus Crenshaw, a junior from Detroit. This team can score a ton of points and has broken 90 on eight occasions this season. Of course it won’t be easy to score against Wisconsin, the number one defensive team in the country according to Kenpom’s adjusted D rankings. Big men (if you can call them that) Frank Robinson (6-4) and Scott Cutley (6-5) each average over 7 rebounds a game and will not be intimidated by Brian Butch and company.

The Bad: They are just too small and too poor defensively. Butch should have a field day since he’ll have seven inches on the man guarding him. Wisconsin’s slowed down pace will give Fullerton fits, and will not allow them to get out on the break, like they wish to do. Also Michael Flowers, possibly the best perimeter defender we have in CBB, will be up in Akognon’s jock the entire game. We’ll see if he can get his twenty points with Flowers all over him.

The Verdict: Wisconsin dictates the tempo of every game they play. They’ll keep this one in the low sixties and limit Fullerton’s open looks. On the boards Wisconsin should dominate enough to take this one by ten to fifteen.