Team Capsules Part 8

Vanderbilt (26-7, 10-6) Coming off of a heartbreaking one point loss to Georgetown last year, the Commodores have had an even better season in 2007-2008. Thanks in large part to the import of Australian Freshman Center AJ Ogilvy, Vandy has been able to move on without last year’s do-everything man Derrick Byars. Ogilvy and Senior Guard Shan Foster combined for 38 points per game this year, proving to be the best duo in the SEC. Foster was recently named SEC Player of the year, an honor bestowed upon Byars one year ago. Vanderbilt went undefeated at home this year and hopes to hop on the backs of Ogilvy and Foster deep into the tournament.

The Good: At home Vanderbilt is as good as any team in the country. In fact they went 21-0 and even beat then top ranked Tennessee at Memorial Gym. They have one of the best inside-outside combinations in the nation. Shan Foster is absolutely wet (48 % 3P) and AJ Ogilvy has a nice touch inside of 15 feet (60% FG). These two shoot the ball extremely well. They average a combined fewer than 24 shots a game, but Coach Kevin Stallings needs them to shoot more to make it past the second round this year. Foster is one of the most underrated players in the tournament. His numbers really jump out at you (21 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 apg, and 2 spg). He also averages less than two turnovers a game and shoots 52 % from the floor. He is very efficient and I believe he’s an NBA guard. Besides, Ogilvy and Foster, the next weapon is Alex Gordon. He hits about two threes a game. PG Jermaine Beal is pretty steady and PF Ross Neitner, a transfer from LSU is a 6-9 banger in the paint. One plus is that they start three seniors. Also, everyone in the starting 5 shoots over 75 % from the line.

The Bad: Outside of Ogilvy and Foster, this team doesn’t have too many other weapons. Gordon basically lives at the 3 point line (70% of his FGs are 3Pts). Neitner is steady but won’t amaze you with any offensive skill set. The bench is nothing special, and isn’t relied on too much. This team plays outstanding at home, thanks in large part to Memorial Gym, where the benches are on the baseline and the backdrop for shooters is difficult to get accustomed to. For this reason, Vanderbilt has a huge advantage at home, thus their 21-0 home record. They are only 5-7 on the road! The thing I don’t like most about this team is that they don’t force turnovers. They are tied for last in that category in the SEC. If you can’t force turnovers, you will have a hard time getting out on the break and creating easy baskets. On a night where the threes aren’t falling those easy baskets are very valuable.

The Verdict: I think Foster and Ogilvy are both very good. They are just too shy. It is remarkable for a team’s two best players to shoot so well from the floor. And these two are good enough by themselves to win Vandy a couple games. To beat a really good team, though, they need more from the supporting cast. Also, the 5-7 record on the road troubles me. I could see this team making it back to the sweet 16, but it depends so much on the matchups. If I had to guess now, I think this team will make it to the second weekend.




UConn (24-8, 13-5) Rebounding from an awful year last year (by UConn’s standards), Jim Calhoun has done a very good coaching job in 2007-2008. He has taken a team with not that much talent and put them back near the top of the Big East standings. Once again for the 8th year in a row, the Huskies lead the country in shot blocking (basically all 7-3 center Hasheem Thabeet’s work). Calhoun looks to bring this team back to the glorydays of Taliek Brown, Ben Gordon, and Emeka Okafor, but that will not be an easy task.

The Good: Size. Uconn’s got plenty of it. Their starting 5, height-wise, could pass for an NBA team. Thabeet starts at center and swats away everything in sight. Stanley Robinson is an athletic 6-9 forward. Jeff Adrien is 6-7, built, and plays like he’s 6-10. And that’s only their frontcourt. Even their guards are big. Starting point guard AJ Price is 6-2. Shooting guards Craig Austrie and Jerome Dyson (who recently returned from suspension for breaking “team policy”) are 6-3, and 6-4 respectively. Because of this size, UConn rebounds extremely well, usually limiting their opponents to very few second and third shots on a possession. This team has more than just size, however. As a team, they go when AJ Price goes. He is the catalyst, and luckily for UConn fans, AJ has had his breakout season. He is a floor general and one of the best point guards in the Big East. He excels late in the game when it is his job to beat his man off the dribble and get to the basket. This is something UConn relies on very heavily, as not too many other players can create for themselves. Heaven knows Hasheem Thabeet can’t! If this team is to get anywhere in the tourney it will be because of their overpowering size and the point guard play of AJ Price.

The Bad: Shooting. Their guards do not shoot the ball well at all and in March that’s basically all that counts. Price is at 44% from the floor, Austrie 38%, Dyson and Doug Wiggins 41%. In particular, this team does not shoot the three well. Stanley Robinson is the only player above 37%. Too often do you see UConn wind down the shot clock and force up a three or depend on Dyson or Price to create. Offensively, this is not the most fluid team in the tournament. Nor do they run their sets especially well. This will hurt them.

The Verdict: I do not like this team’s chances very much. I’d be very surprised if they get out of the first weekend. They simply do not shoot the ball well enough. Rebounding and shot blocking can only take you so far. Unfortunately for Jim Calhoun, I think he’ll have to wait another couple years to get back to the final 4. For me this is a team that is capable of being upset in the first round, but will more likely fall in the round of 32.




Indiana (25-7, 14-4) The Hoosiers have had an interesting season this year to say the least. Coach Kelvin Sampson suspiciously snagged Eric Gordon away from Illinois last spring and was called out for his illegal recruiting measures. He spoke to high school players like Gordon during “frozen periods” and text messaged non stop. Kelvin resigned a little over halfway through the season and the Hoosiers have not been the same team since his departure.

The Good: It would be unfair to mention Indiana without talking about all of the success they have had this year. It was a very noble decision on forward DJ White’s part to pass up on the NBA draft and stay in school for his senior year. He has proven a lot of nay-sayers wrong this year and become one of the premier big men in the nation. The first three years of his career he couldn’t stay on the court due to injuries, but he has done a great job of staying healthy in 2007-2008. Along with Gordon, interim coach Dan Dakich is equipped with the best inside outside duo in the entire country. CBB analyst Jimmy Dykes is quick to point out that national championship teams must have an NBA guard and an NBA big (18 of the last 20 have). If you subscribe to Dykes’ theory, Indiana is on a short list of championship contenders. They have been a very solid team on both ends and it is great to know that at the end of a game either Eric Gordon or DJ White (probably would be the first options on any team in CBB) will get a touch.

The Bad: This has not been the same team since Dakich took over. Before Sampson left they were 21-4. After he left they are 4-3. They are certainly not a hot team going into the tournament. They have gone from a two seed to a four or five in a span of two weeks. Also I am not a huge believer in having a freshman guard as your number one scoring option. Very rarely does a freshman guard take a team on his back. And yeah, I’ve heard of Carmelo Anthony. The three reasons not to pick this team are Dakich, lack of experience in the backcourt (other two guards Crawford is a freshman, Bassett is a sophomore), and they do not shoot threes well (34% for the season).

The Verdict: This team is on upset alert. If I had to name a high seed to lose in the first round without seeing the matchups this would be the team I chose. Very few teams have the mental strength to endure a coaching change mid-season and still make a sustained tourney run. And given Indiana’s youth, notably in the backcourt, I don’t see this team getting too far. My prediction is they’ll be upset in the first weekend.




Memphis (33-1, 16-0) About one year ago I was asked to give a prediction on who would win the national championship in 2008. My response was Memphis. Knowing they would return everyone from an elite 8 squad, and bring in the most explosive and arguably best freshman in the country, it was an easy choice for me. This has been a special season for Coach Calipari’s team. Aside from a 4 point loss at home to Tennessee they have gone through the season perfect. They locked up a number one seed by humiliating Tulsa today, up 42-13 at halftime.

The Good: Memphis runs an unorthodox offense known as the Attack Attack Skip Attack Attack (AASAA). Calipari got it over the summer from Pepperdine coach Vance Walberg. This offense is perfect for the Tigers. Basically it consists of four athletic slashers along the perimeter and one big in the short corner. The slashers are told to catch and attack the rim. If they don’t have a good look at the basket, they skip the ball to one of the other three or lob it up to the rim for the big (Joey Dorsey). Very few teams have the athleticism or depth to run this. Memphis is one of the few. The four slashers are 6-7 Chris Douglas Roberts, (in the business known as CDR), 6-9 Robert Dozier, 6-3 Derrick Rose (the most explosive freshman in the country), and 6-6 Antonio Anderson. All four of them can attack the rim and finish with the best of them. All four except Dozier are adequate from beyond the arc. Off the bench, Doneal Mack, Shawn Taggart, Andre Allen, and Willie Kemp provide big minutes and don’t give way for much drop-off when the starters are in foul trouble. Dorsey is an absolute monster. He’s one of the better rebounders in the tournament at almost ten a game.

The Bad: Free Throw shooting. They simply can not hit free throws. This is a major concern of mine. They are the worst foul shooting team in the nation (less than 60%). At the end of the game no lead is safe for the Tigers. The worst of the bunch is Dorsey (38%). Given the physical nature of Dorsey’s game, he gets to the line a lot. What is troubling is that he leaves many points on the board since he can not hit anything from the line. Other than free throw shooting, there really aren’t any glaring weaknesses on this team.

The Verdict: They are one of about five teams that could be cutting down the nets in Indianapolis. Not many teams can match up with their sheer athleticism. Tennessee could, and that is why they walked out of the FedEx Forum with a win. Look for them to storm through the first two teams they play. They will receive trouble when they have to play close, slower tempo games in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. I still think this team will make the final 4 because of their depth and athleticism. Do I stand by my prediction that they’ll win the national championship? No, I don’t. But I wouldn’t be shocked if they did win the whole thing.