Team Capsules Part 7

Louisville- (24-8, 14-4) Rick Pitino (a slimeball) has one of the more talented teams he’s ever coached (Not Kentucky ‘96 talent but you get the point). They go 8 deep, with no one else on the team averaging over 9 minutes a game. They have very balanced scoring with 4 guys averaging in double figures. Their leading scorer is David Padgett at 11.7 ppg but the heart and soul of this team is Terrance Williams. The 6’6 junior averages 11 points 7 rebounds and 4.5 assists a game. Earl Clark provides a great spark off the bench with 9 double doubles on the year and averages 11 points and 8 rebounds. He is extremely versatile for being 6’9 and can guard any player from 2-4. Any of the eight guys who get time in the rotation could start for any team in the country and buy into the team concept by playing at Louisville.

The Good: I once heard that the three keys to success were Defense! Defense! Defense! Well if this is so, then Louisville is very successful. They are ranked 5^th in adjusted Defense in the country behind only Kansas, Memphis, Wisconsin and UCLA. All of which are teams that could make it to the final four and win it all (exception of Wisconsin). They play great on the ball defense and have wings that can guard any matchup assigned to them. Their guards are lightning fast and their bigs are big boys. Their dominance on defense has been shown by holding Marquette to 51, Georgetown to 51 and Syracuse to 50. They also rebound real well with five guys averaging over 4 boards a game and two over 7. Earl Clark and Derrick Caracter create extra possessions by crashing the offensive boards. Also say what you want about Pitino but he is one of the great basketball minds in college basketball and will out-diagram just about any coach in the country.

The Bad: They lost their last two games and you don’t want to be on a cold stretch entering the tournament which doesn’t bode well for them. Another bad for this team is down the stretch free throw shooting. Last year it came down to two at the line FTW (for the win) and Edgar Sosa missed two free throws while they were down 1 and they lost. This year 7 of their 8 men in the rotation shoot less than 72% from the line including Terrance Williams’ atrocious 56%. Both bigs David Padgett and Derrick Caracter are foul liabilities who could get the ‘Ville into trouble if both of them have to sit because of their lack of depth off the bench. Also according to Ken Pom they are one of the 50 unluckiest teams in all of college basketball this year.

The Verdict: They have one of the most talented teams 1-8 of anyone in the tourney and pose matchup problems for every team. At one point this season they went on a 19-3 run and they have won 4 games in a row on three different occasions on the season. To get to the final four they will have to win 4 in a row again and they have the talent to do so. Past that I don’t think they have a chance. They also aren’t coming in hot and have looked lackluster and apathetic at times. For these reasons a elite 8 pick would be safe but I wouldn’t be shocked if they got knocked out earlier or went on to the final four.

Notre Dame- (24-7, 14-4) Since joining the Big East, Notre Dame was always the 5^th or 6^th team to get into the tournament and was the Chris Thomas and Torin Frances show. Well both are gone now and it’s a new team, its got the Big East POY in sophomore Luke Harangody, ‘Gody is a double double machine and averaged 21 and 10 this season. They also have Kyle McAlarney back this year who adds a whole other dimension to their offense. He has the Ronald Ramon syndrome, leave him open-it’s going in. Interestingly enough he shoots better from three than he does from two.

The Good: Notre Dame had the number one offense in the Big East. They have the most assist per game of any team in the country which means they move the ball extremely well. They now have a superstar in Harangody, something they didn’t have last year and they now have a shooter with McAlarney back who is averaging over 3 threes a game. Another thing they do exceptionally well is rebound. ‘Gody averages over 10 with his wide frame, Rob Kurz grabs 7.5 a game, Zach Hillesland and Tory Jackson both contribute with 5 a game. When ‘Gody is going to work on the inside and McAlarney is knocking down traybombs there are few teams if any that can match that inside outside threat.

The Bad: Tory Jackson, their point guard, can’t shoot free throws. He is shooting 51% on the year. Having a point guard that can’t be trusted with the ball at the end of a game when winning has plagued many teams in the past, like Uconn with Taliek Brown and Pitt with Brandan Knight and has led to both teams downfalls. They only have one senior, Rob Kurz who has been their captain for two years but he’s not a go to playmaker he’s a top notch role player (1 point away from 1000 for the career). Also this team still has the taste of last year’s loss to Winthrop still on the back of their minds. Even though Winthrop was the catchy pick last year they still pulled the upset so until they win that first game in the tourney they will be thinking about it. Also they are a much different team at home and unfortunately their games will not be played at the Joyce center where they have won 37 straight.

The Verdict: This team is better than last years’ team straight up. They should make it to the sweet sixteen with the talent they have, but inexperience may bite them and they could lose to a hungrier team. I see them as a 3 or 4 seed and winning easily in the first round then having a battle in the second.

American- (21-11, 10-4) their starting backcourt is composed of a listed 5’9 (really 5’7) and 5’11. From that standpoint alone they were mismatched before entering every game. They were 7-8 on January 4^th and 11-10 entering February, then they just turned it around. Since then they have gone 10-1 and beat out Colgate in the Patriot League championship for the school’s first ever NCAA tournament bid. Their leading scorer is the 5’11 Garrison Carr who averages 18 ppg and 4 threes a game. Their second best player is Derrick Mercer, (who is on the St. Anthony’s team profiled in book The Miracle of St. Anthony) the 5’7 point guard runs the show for them averaging over 12 points and 4 assists.

The Good: They have played and won in hostile environments this year. They beat Maryland at the Comcast Center back in December and lost a close one at Dayton. Also this team is hot and is playing with house money. No one expected them to come this far so just going to the tourney is enough for them. Doing anything in the tourney would be added gravy. If Carr can get hot early they may be able to prolong the game. If he nails 6 threes it will surely open up his teammates. Also all of their top 9 scorers are upperclassmen which will means they should be poised.

The Bad: Experience. Yes all 9 of their top scorers are upperclassmen, but only one is a senior. That is 8 juniors and no one on the team has been to a tournament. Also if they play against a bigger team they will be exploited like they were against Georgetown when they got blown out. Mercer probably has the most big game experience for all of his state championship games at St. Anthony. That is not a good thing when your most experienced player is going on high school experience heading into the tourney.

The Verdict: Wait ‘til next year. This team will be back again next year, with 9 juniors this trip will be very valuable to give them confidence but don’t expect them to come in and upset anyone. Next year, that’s another story but right now in the 2009 NCAA tournament I’m picking American to the sweet 16 hop on the bandwagon now while there is plenty of room.