Team Capsules Part 3

Siena: (22-10, 13-5) Siena took the automatic bid from the MAAC last night after handily defeating Rider by 21. The game was at the Times-Union Center (formerly Pepsi Center) in Albany right on Siena’s home floor. Although the MAAC has not had too much success in the tourney in the recent past, Siena is an intriguing team for a few reasons.

The Good: Despite playing in a pretty weak MAAC this year, Siena still played a pretty difficult schedule. They lost at Syracuse, at Memphis, and home to St Joe’s, but pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the season in defeating Stanford at home (Kind of makes you wonder what Trent Johnson was thinking scheduling a game in Albany). They have been tested this year and that could help them this late in March. Another huge plus is their ability to knock down the 3. As a team they knocked down seven 3’s a game and have 5 guys that can consistently hit them. You also have to like the two leading scorers Kenny Hasbrouck (6-3 jr) and Edwin Ubiles (6-6 So), both well-rounded players who seem to do a little bit of everything. If Tay Fisher gets hot like he did against Rider, he is capable of hitting 6 3s by himself (which he did on two occasions).

The Bad: Size, Size, and Size. Or should I say lack there of? The Saints don’t start a player over 6-7 which could pose problems if they play a talented frontcourt. They rely heavily on Alex Franklin a 6-5 sophomore forward to carry the load of rebounding, and he usually comes through, averaging 8 a game. But I question whether a 6-5 forward will be able to pull down big rebounds down the stretch against, say, DJ White or Luke Harangody. They also do not have great depth, as only 6 guys average more than 11 mins a game. Not to mention a pythag rating of 115.

Verdict: Siena is a very dangerous team simply because they are so guard-oriented. They shoot the 3 well as expected and are well coached by 3^rd year man Fran McCaffery. I also like them because they have 3 proven scorers with Franklin, Hasbrouck, and Ubiles. Each averages +15 ppg. They will probably wind up with a 14 seed however, and don’t have much of a shot at beating a good 3 seed. I’d put their odds somewhere around 20% of pulling off an upset. That is unless the committee matches them up against the Lopez brothers and Stanford.

San Diego: (21-13, 11-3) San Diego pulled off two big time wins the last two nights in beating St. Mary’s and the Zags. The win against St. Mary’s came in double OT after coming back from a 17 point deficit. And against Gonzaga, the Toreros pretty much dominated and were in control the entire 2^nd half. The game was not as close as the score indicates. They started the season off 8-11, but have won 13 of their last 15 en route to their first tourney appearance since 2003 when they beat the Zags to take the WCC title.

The Good: USD is a very hot team and has beaten two tournament teams in two nights (albeit on their home floor). They have played a number of other tournament teams this season, which gives them confidence coming into the first round. They beat Kentucky at Rupp at a time when both teams were struggling, but lost to South Alabama, New Mexico, and USC. It is important to remember, however, that that was a different team playing in November and December. Since January 9^th they have really turned it around, based largely on the play of 6-0 Junior guard Brandon Johnson and big man Gyno Pomare (6-8 Junior Center). If you’re looking for reasons to pick this team the two major reasons that stand out are the 13-2 record in the last 15 (No one wants to play a hot team) and Brandon Johnson, who can take over any game (See: 28 pts, 8 reb against St Mary’s, 27 pts 8 reb at Kentucky).

The Bad: There are several reasons not to like this team. For one thing, how could a serious upset threat get off to an 8-11 start? They also do not shoot the 3 particularly well, averaging fewer than 5 3’s a game as a team and only 34 %. Another reason is that their two biggest wins of the season came right on their home floor, and besides a win at Kentucky they do not have any big road wins. Another reason is their 15 turnovers a game. And if all that’s not enough, try a 119 pythag rating.

Verdict: For some reason I like this team. Maybe it’s because they’re extremely hot at the moment. Maybe it’s because unlike other mid majors they have been tested in a difficult conference. Maybe it’s because they have a go to scorer on the perimeter (Johnson) and on the block (Pomare), and a versatile glue guy that can do everything (Rob Jones). They will probably receive a 12-13 seed and, depending on the matchup, have a pretty good shot at an upset. It heavily depends on both the team they’re playing and where they are playing though. I think they’ll be a trendy pick and it might be warranted given their 13-2 record since January 21.