Oregon-(18-13, 9-9) Before this season I would have predicted this Oregon squad to do very well. Senior big man Maarty Luenan is one of the best rebounders in the country. Guards Malik Hairston and Bryce Taylor both pivotal players last year are also back for their senior season and Tajuan Porter who was sometimes out of control last year has another year of growth under his belt. But this team did not do very well they were only 5 games over 500 and the loss of Aaron Brooks seems to have left this team in shambles. They only have four quality wins on the season (Stanford, K-St., and Arizona twice) and have been inconsistent to say the least. They win three in a row then lose three in a row then win two in a row right after that.
The Good: This team has senior leadership and the fourth best offense in the country. Their offense can score on just about anyone and can keep them within games or catch them up if they fall behind. All four of the guys I mentioned in the preview can score 20 on a given night and all but Porter should not want to go out in the first round of their senior years. Ernie Kent is also a good coach who knows how to win.
The Bad: This team is not the same team it was last year with Aaron Brooks. Losing Brooks has brought a team that was very-very good to a team that is just mediocre. They also aren’t deserving of the 9 seed they were given and now have to play a underseeded Mississippi St. team in the first round. It will be a battle of great offense vs. great defense.
The Verdict: I have made clear my position on Mississippi St. I am going to ride them ‘til I lose my bracket this year. So sorry for Luenan Hairston and Taylor you had your run as juniors have fun in Europe.
Michigan State-(25-8,12-6) No team has been more inconsistent this year then the Spartans (that includes you Savannah St. ranked #341 in consistency on KenPom). They lose to Indiana by 19 then two weeks later drop 103 on em and beat them by 29 (Dukie V: You Kiddin’ Me). They put up 36 points @ Iowa 42 @ Wisconsin and can put up 103 on Indiana that’s just insane. So depending on which of Tom Izzo’s clubs shows will determine how far this team goes.
The Good: Drew Neitzel will come to play regardless. He averages 14 points a game with 3 threes. He also averages 4 assists a game and only 1.4 Turnovers. He is a senior and is steady with the ball in his hands no matter the situation. Aside from Neitzel they have many things going for them. They go 9 deep with guys who can come in and contribute. Also when this team plays well there are few in the country that can beat them. They beat Texas, Indiana, BYU and only lost to UCLA by 5 in a game they should’ve had. It seems that when they play good teams they step it up and have the good team show up. The one where Namick, Suton and Morgan all look real good and the team makes you forget those Iowa games.
The Bad: The inconsistency. Sure, they can have that great Texas beating squad show up, or they can have the 36 point Iowa team show up or the team that lost to Penn St. They will be tested mightily if the second round matchup between them and Pittsburgh comes into fruition. That game will test their toughness and will see how Neitzel really is remembered in East Lansing.
The Verdict: When clicking this team is great. They seem to show up for big games and Tom Izzo is a top notch coach. For this reason I have them easily over Temple and against Pitt I still am torn.
Temple-(21-12, 11-5) Since conference play has started Fran Dunphy has gotten his system to click. Led by Dionte Christmas and Mark Tyndale this team has beaten Xavier and St. Joes (x2, the second time was to win the A10 conference tourney) to get into the tournament. This is a young team with the only 1 senior starter with Tyndale. Tyndale is their leader in rebounds and assists and plays a somewhat undersized forward position. This team is real big with their smallest starter being 6’3. They only have guards off the bench so their bigs must stay out of trouble or they could be in trouble.
The Good: They are hot. They have won 7 in a row and 10 of their last 12. This team plays very well offensively. Christmas averages 20 points a game and Tyndale averages 16. Both are big time scorers and make it difficult for defenses to game plan this team because they don’t know which one to key in on. Also Tyndale is a very good defender and can guard anyone from 2-4.
The Bad: The team doesn’t play well defensively. They don’t have that trademarked John Chaney gritty defense that Temple was so known for. They also don’t have any marquee wins outside of their conference play. With Tyndale as their main senior they will need him to carry this team early on against a very talented Michigan State team.
The Verdict: They are playing a team that is too athletic for them and that plays too well offensively for their lacking defense to be ignored. That is why Michigan State will win this game.
BYU-(27-7, 14-2) BYU seems to have reached that level that UNLV, Nevada, Southern Illinois, Butler, Winthrop and Davidson rest on. They are a top-tier mid-major. They consistently make the tournament and as a result of their success have earned themselves great recruits. This years squad like the previous years is a great team. They have second round written all over them and then a loss to UCLA.
The Good: Trent Plaisted is one of the best big men in the entire tournament. The 6’11 junior center is a legitimate NBA prospect and played his best against the best teams this season (24 and 17 vs UNC and 21 and 12 in a win against Louisville). Lee Cummard the 6’7 junior was the co MVC player of the year and is a great all around player. They have great shooters which can keep them in any game this season and they have already beaten a top team this season by winning @ Louisville. They have 4 shooters that can all hit two threes in any game which is great to have come the tournament.
The Bad: Depth, this team only goes 7 deep and outside of those seven there is a significant lag. If anyone gets into foul trouble it is likely game over for the Cougars. Also they play through the post which could be tough to do against the likes of Joseph Jones and Deandre Jordan (If he tries).
The Verdict: 1 and done. If they were a 12 seed I’d probably put them into the sweet sixteen. But playing UCLA cuts any hopes of that. Here is a good team that will play a great team.
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