St. Josephs-(21-12, 9-7) Usually 12 losses doesn’t get you into the tournament. 12 losses especially doesn’t get you into the tournament if you are not in a major conference (A10 and Conf. USA are above mid-major but not ACC Big East major). Finishing 6-7 to end the season including making it to the conference tourney final usually smells NIT. So why are Phil Martelli’s Hawks in the tournament? Because they beat Xavier twice in the last two weeks. That is how much credit the tourney committee gives Xavier that they are willing to use an at-large on a team that likely wasn’t worthy if those two wins were Umass and Fordham (two other A10 schools). They start two seniors, two juniors and a sophomore and outside of Garret Williamson they get virtually nothing out of their bench. So what is it about this team that is making me think about picking them for the upset?
The Good: Size. Their starting lineup is 6’1, 6’4, 6’10, 6’8, and 6’9. Along with their size they all can shoot the three outside of center Ahmad Nivens (another guy from Miracle of St. Anthony).They average 7.7 threes a game as a team and their starters get 7 of them. Their leader is Senior Pat Calathes (brother Nick is on Florida). Calathes is a 6’10 wing player who averages 18 ppg and hits 40% from downtown but still manages to grab 7.5 rebounds a game. Tasheed Carr averages 11 points and 5.6 assists a game at guard with an assist to turnover ratio of exactly 2-1. Ahmad Nivens is a big body who can bang down low and averages 14 and 6 a game. They have a very potent offense and can shoot very well and as a team they shoot free throws well. Lastly, I feel they are very well coached. Phil Martelli has been in the tourney before and gone far (Jameer and Delonte helped) if it comes down to a late game situation against Oklahoma I feel Phil has the edge over Jeff Capel based on experience alone.
The Bad: Their defense can lag at times. According to Ken Pom they are one of the unluckiest teams in the country and come the tourney everyone needs luck. Another thing is that they don’t have any margin for error when it comes to foul trouble. If they get into foul trouble they have no depth on their bench and will lose. It will be on their players to stay disciplined and not get into foul trouble or it could be a long ride back to Philly.
The Verdict: Nivens vs. Longar down low will be a great matchup and how they contain Blake Griffen will be the key. If Griffen doesn’t go off and St. Joes can hit their shots look for the upset.
Oklahoma-(22-11, 9-7) what distinguishes a 6 seed from an 11 seed? Usually the six seed has had a very good year and is a mid-major or is a major conference team that has potential to go very far (Marquette and USC). Well this year in the case of Baylor Kansas St. and Oklahoma I am not quite sure what distinguishes these three teams enough to make one a 6 and the other two 11’s. Baylor was 21-10 and 9-7 in the Big 12, Kansas St. was 20-11 but 10-6 in the Big 12 and the only one out of these three with a real marquee win (Kansas) and Oklahoma was 22-11 and 9-7 in the Big 12. Somehow the committee thought that Oklahoma was so much more deserving of this seed than the other two teams(one who finished better in conference and one who had less losses). In any case Jeff Capel has done a good job taking over for Kelvin Sampson after he left for Indiana. They have a stud in Blake Griffin, who has an NBA game but sometimes seems as if he doesn’t try in games which could be their downfall.
The Good: Blake Griffin is a star. He has more talent than anyone on the court every time he steps on and won’t meet a match unless Oklahoma made it past Louisville. Longar Longar aside from having a great name is a proven center who will need to come up big if they are to beat St. Joes. Longar is the senior of note on this team and will need to guide the young team through the tough times. As a team they play pretty good defense which makes up for the times when their offense isn’t good.
The Bad: They just aren’t 6 seed quality. This game will be a battle of a team that debatably should be in against a team that is a real 11 seed or 10 seed in quality. They can beat up on bad teams but when they play the elite teams they get smacked. Against Texas they lost by 28 in the Big 12 tournament and against Kansas earlier this year they lost by 30.
The Verdict: If Griffin really comes to play no one on St. Joes can stop him and Oklahoma will roll on to lose in the second round. Otherwise they could be one of the upsetees of the first round.
South Alabama-(26-6, 16-2) This team is legit. To come out of the Sun Belt and garner a national reputation enough to get an at large bid even when they did not make their own conference tournament final is impressive. They start four juniors and one senior. Demetric Bennett is their lone senior starter and he is their star. He is a 6’4 senior guard who started his career off at SMU but has found his home at South Alabama. On the season he averaged 20 ppg made 3 threes a game (while shooting 41% from 3) grabbed 6 rebounds and never got into foul trouble. They will be playing in Birmingham which is an advantage for them but they are playing a team that should have been a much higher seed in Butler.
The Good: Bennett is a great scorer. The other players all feed off of him and they have seven guys who see significant time. They start two guys under 6’ but being undersized will not hurt them against Butler. This season they proved themselves to the tourney committee by beating Mississippi St., San Diego, Western Kentucky (2x) and they only lost by 3 @ Vanderbilt. Most all of their games this year have been close games but they seem to find a way to win them all which is a great quality to have. As a team they average 7 threes a game so they can shoot from long range. Only one of their losses has been at home this year and they are playing in Birmingham which is like a home game.
The Bad: Their Ken Pom numbers are terrible they are 75th in the country overall and their defense is ranked 102nd. If their defense doesn’t show up and get out on Butler’s great shooters it will be over before the home crowed can even get into it in Birmingham. Also Middle Tennessee seems to have their number in winning their last two against them. I am positive Butler has been studying those tapes plentifully this week.
The Verdict: I am not sure about this one honestly. South Alabama is a great team and it’s terrible that the committee feels the need to eliminate all mid-majors early on. Against most other teams I think I would have them winning, especially at home. But Butler can’t lose, not in AJ and Mike’s last run. I’ve got a great game and Butler winning.
Arkansas-(22-11, 9-7) Before I go on to talk about how senior laden this team is and how I don’t know who to pick in their game against Indiana I just thought I should share who the leading rebounder on this Arkansas team is. No its not Darien Townes or Vincent Hunter the two 6’10 players that start up front, nor is it 7’ reserve center Steven Hill who as Scott Van Pelt stated “looks out of the Black Crowes” and no it isn’t 6’6 do everything man Sonny Weems who has had the Nik Caner-Medley effect on the program (seems like he’s been there forever). Their leader in rebounds is Patrick Beverly the 6’1 180 lb sophomore guard with nearly 7 a game. He should teach Eddy Curry a thing or two because Eddy is 7 ft and can’t grab over 5 a game in the NBA. Anyway on to Arkansas. 6 of their top 8 players are seniors and 4 of their starters are seniors. That right there is a recipe for tourney success.
The Good: They match up surprisingly well with Indiana. They can throw all three big men at White and use all of their 15 fouls between them then Weems and Beverly can do their job in bugging Eric Gordon. For Air Gordon they can’t stop him they can only try to hope to contain him. The biggest thing they have going for them is that they enter the tournament hot. They have won 4 of their last 6 games including marquee wins over Vandy (x2) and Tennessee (while winning at Tennessee’s own game). Also any coach is a advantage over the bum Dan Dakich at Indiana. Dakich may be remembered by you loyal Buffalo fans as the idiot coach of Bowling Green last year. Pelphrey gets the nod over Dakich any day. Also they have the senior leadership needed to win a game.
The Bad: Outside of the week leading up to the tournament this team stunk, they were NIT bound and a disappointing team. Now with a few days off since their great week will they fall back into their old habits? They don’t have any prolific scorers and when the game is on the line I don’t think anyone on this team is a feared option with the ball in their hands. Also it says a lot about your big men if your guard is outrebounding you.
The Verdict: Indiana has been in a downward spiral and its been disappointing for D.J. White who in January seemed like was on his way to a elite 8 and vindication for his 4 troubled years. Well now with Dakich they are on the way down, Arkansas is on the way up. I like the matchups for Arkansas and will give them the nod in this 8-9 battle.
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