Texas (28-6, 13-3) Not too often do you see a team lose the National Player of the Year one year and have more success the following season. That is the case with Texas this year. Following the departure of Kevin Durant, the Longhorns have received big contributions from sophomore point guard DJ Augustin, senior shooting guard AJ Abrams, sophomore forward Damion James, and junior center Connor Atchley. They played perhaps the most difficult non conference schedule early in the season, racking up some impressive wins in the process. Texas beat Tennessee, Oral Roberts, and St. Mary’s at home, and UCLA at Pauley Pavilion. They lost at Michigan State and home to Wisconsin.
The Good: The Longhorns possess what I believe to be the best starting five in CBB. They have the best point guard in the country in Augustin (20 ppg 6 assts). Alongside Augustin, AJ Abrams and Atchley are lethal if you leave them open. Forward Damion James might be the best defender in all of college basketball, and he averages an astounding 10.5 rebounds per game, while usually guarding the opponent’s best perimeter player. Rounding out the starting five, Justin Mason brings new meaning to the word underrated. All he does is play outstanding defense and finish every chance he gets at the rim. The team doesn’t rely on him too much for creating his own offense, so any points he gives are an added bonus. Coach Rick Barnes is a mastermind at changing up the pace by switching between man and a 2-3 zone. This will give teams trouble, leaving inexperienced guards baffled on several possessions. Off the bench, big bodies Gary Johnson (6-7) and Dexter Pittman (6-10) are sufficient. At the end of a game Augustin (79 % FT) and Abrams (79 %) excel at the line.
The Bad: This team is not deep at all. Only 6 players average over 10 minutes a game and the first guard off the bench, JD Lewis, hasn’t played more than 13 minutes in any game this season. This lack of depth makes you worry a little bit about a sustained run to San Antonio. They will also most likely be outscored heavily in points in the paint against the better teams, as they rely heavily on the jumpshot.
The Verdict: I have liked this team all season. They’ll be in my final four, partly because at the end of a game I’d rather have the ball in Augustin’s hands than anyone else. Also, I really like their potential matchup against Memphis in the Elite 8, because Damion James can contain CDR and Justin Mason will do a good job on Derrick Rose. More importantly, their zone will give Calipari’s poor 3 pt shooting team fits. They are my pick out of the South, but I don’t think they’ll advance to the final.
Purdue (24-8, 15-3) Purdue has been one of the biggest surprises this season. Picked to finish in the bottom half of the Big Ten this year, Coach Matt Painter (Big Ten Coach of the Year) and his team have shocked many by finishing second in what many would call a down year for the conference. What’s more surprising is that 6 of Purdue’s top 7 in minutes played are freshmen or sophomores. They have three of the five best three point shooters in the Big Ten and five players with 30 or more steals (including Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Chris Kramer).
The Good: Painter gives the team free reign to do what they want in his motion offense. They usually end up taking a three. In fact, 36 % of their field goal attempts this year have been threes. They take 20 a game from beyond the arc. Freshman E’Twaun Moore can hit consistently at 44%. Robbie Hummel, a 6-8 forward who would have been Big Ten Freshman of the Year if not for Eric Gordon, shoots it at 47%. Keaton Grant, a sophomore guard is not too far behind at 44%. They play fantastic team defense, and switch on every screen. This works to their advantage since basically anyone on the team can guard most positions on the floor. For such a young team, they show remarkable maturity (they won at the Kohl Center in Wisconsin).
The Bad: this is not exactly a hot team. They have lost 3 of their last 6 (two of them were in OT). Anytime a team is this young, it is also important to remember they could have hit a wall this late in the season. In high school you only play 20-25 games a season. The Boilermakers will play their 33rd Thursday against Baylor.
The Verdict: This is a very talented group of young players. To me, though, they are probably one year away. I like them against Baylor a lot, because I think their switching of every screen will slow down Baylor’s potent offense. I do not like this team against Xavier though. Xavier, to me, seems like a better and older version of Purdue since both are such balanced teams.
St. Mary’s (25-6, 12-2) The Gaels have had their best season in quite some time this year. Behind the impressive play of freshman guard Patty Mills, an import from Australia, St. Mary’s has eclipsed the 25 win mark and beaten a few good teams. Most notably, wins over Oregon and Gonzaga proved to the committee that the Gaels were worth an at large bid, the third from the WCC.
The Good: St. Mary’s goes eight deep and has good size for a mid major. Omar Samhan, a 6-11 center will have a big say in how far the Gaels go. He is a load on the block and has effective post moves going to either shoulder. He pulls down over three offensive rebounds a game. If he can put up 15 and 10, the Gaels will have a good shot against Miami. Patty Mills is one of the more underrated players in the tournament. As Dickie V would say, he is a real PTP’er. He has proven to be a very effective scorer and has the license to launch from wherever on the court. Diamon Simpson has come on in the 2nd half of the year and provided the Gaels with 13.5 ppg and 9.5 rpg.
The Bad: They can be a little bit stagnant on offense, watching Mills when he has the ball. Also they do not fare well against very physical teams. They lost to Kent State, Southern Illinois, and San Diego twice. And for those of you thinking about taking them over Texas in the 2nd round, remember this. Texas already beat them by 19 on January 5th.
The Verdict: I think they’ll beat Miami in the first round. This is partly because I am not a believer in the Hurricanes, but also because I know Patty Mills has the ability to score 35 on any given night. St. Mary’s is the pick in a close one.
Arizona (19-14, 8-10) It has been a very strange season for Arizona. Lute Olsen left for medical reasons and Kevin O’Neill has stepped in and instilled more discipline in the team. They also have had to deal with numerous injuries to guards Jerryd Bayless and Nic Wise. All in all, I don’t know how this team got in. With 14 losses and a losing record in conference, I think it’s a travesty that they made it in over Arizona St, who they lost to twice. But, this is still a dangerous team nonetheless.
The Good: For the first time in the season Arizona is actually healthy. They get sophomore Nic Wise and freshmen Jerryd Bayless in the backcourt together for a difficult duo to defend. They also have one of the more athletic players in the country at forward, Chase Budinger. Forwards Jordan Hill and Jawann McClellan round out the starting five. They are an extremely talented team. They have shown that this season with wins over Washington State, Texas A&M, UNLV, and USC. They are athletic and shoot the three quite well (39 % as a team). They are a rare team in that they have three guys that can score 25 on you, Bayless, Budinger, and Wise. They are certainly not the worst ten seed to every play in the tournament. And with everyone healthy, they are certainly dangerous.
The Bad: Budinger is not known for his defensive prowess and neither is Bayless for that matter. It will be a high scoring affair against West Virginia. Arizona must rebound better than they have been recently if they are to have any shot. They only average 31 rebounds as a team, a number that must improve. Also, this is not a hot team at all. They have lost 8 of their last 12.
The Verdict: I have picked Arizona in the tournament in the past and they’ve burned me. West Virginia is the pick this year. Not enough rebounding or attitude on the defensive end from this ‘Zona squad. It will be close, but I think Joe Alexander should have a very good game in West Virginia’s 6-8 point win.
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