Problems with the Polls

Sorry it has been so long since our last post. From now through the tournament we here at CDTN are back in full throttle. We will do our annual team capsules once the time comes but this post is a gripe against the top 25 polls. Lets take a look at the polls for this week.

USA Today Coaches Poll
1 Pittsburgh (30) 14-0
2 Duke 13-1
3 North Carolina (1) 14-1
4 Wake Forest 13-0
5 Connecticut 13-1
6 Oklahoma 14-1
7 Texas 11-3
7 UCLA 12-2
9 Syracuse 15-1
10 Georgetown 10-3
11 Clemson 15-0
12 Michigan State 12-2
13 Notre Dame 11-3
14 Purdue 11-4
15 Marquette 14-2
16 Arizona State 12-2
17 Villanova 13-2
18 Xavier 11-2
19 Minnesota 13-1
20 Butler 12-1
21 Louisville 10-3
22 West Virginia 11-3
23 Baylor 12-2
24 Boston College 13-3
25 Tennessee 9-4
Others Receiving Votes: Dayton(14-1) 54; Illinois State(14-1) 50; Michigan(12-3) 49; St. Mary's(13-1) 43; Ohio State(10-3) 40; Memphis(11-3) 37; Brigham Young(12-2) 34; Illinois(13-2) 34; California(13-2) 31; Davidson(10-3) 31; Arkansas(12-1) 27; Gonzaga(9-4) 27; Wisconsin(12-3) 26; Texas A&M(14-1) 22; Missouri(13-2) 21; Florida(13-2) 11; UNLV(13-2) 11; LSU(12-2) 10; Kansas(11-3) 7; Stanford(11-1) 5; Florida State(13-2) 1; Maryland(11-3) 1; Utah State(13-1) 1; Washington(10-3) 1

The coaches selected this list at the beginning of the week. Everyone in the country knows UNC is the best team by far this year but because they had a fluke loss to BC only one coach selected them as the top team in the country. Pittsburgh is probably my favorite basketball program, but in no way are they better than UNC. Sure Pitt is undefeated and UNC has a loss but if they played tomorrow on a neutral floor would Pitt be the favorite? No.

Ranked second ahead of UNC is everyone’s arch nemesis, Duke. Duke and UNC only have one loss each but the rankings have Duke ahead of UNC because Duke’s loss occured before UNC’s.

At the bottom of the rankings there is another gripe. In no way should BC be ranked ahead of Michigan. Michigan beat Duke and BC beat UNC (to the poll’s logic that should mean Michigan should be higher). They have similar records. BC’s only legitimate win was against UNC. I have seen BC play in person this year (at the preseason NIT) and outside of Tyreese Rice they aren’t a real threat. Last night they were embarrassed by Harvard! Despite the poll coming out before this game this shows the level of BC. Sure, Tommy Amaker brought in his sketchy recruits to the Harvard program, but never should a ranked ACC team lose by double digits to an Ivy League school (Mike Singletary Can’t Happen). Michigan, on the other hand, has beaten elites like Duke and UCLA already and has only lost to Duke, Maryland and Wisconsin-three respectable teams. Manny Harris, Laval Lucas Perry and Zach Novak are a formidable attack.

Other gripes with the poll. The top teams aren’t at the top of the poll. In college football, despite losing multiple games the top teams from the preseason are given leeway and stay near the top whereas teams that run the table against weaker competition aren’t given as much credit until the end of the year. Yet, in college basketball teams like Gonzaga and Davidson have gone out, played the top teams, and have solid records yet still they remain unranked despite being ranked in the preseason. Gonzaga was ranked 4th in the country a few weeks ago now is below Cal in the rankings (and not US News). Davidson had beaten West Virginia on a neutral floor and they had the same record (10-3) yet WVU was ranked 22nd while Davidson was ranked tied for 34th.

The polls are off, we should wait until February to see conference play before really judging teams comparatively. The teams can go out of conference and play big dogs or build confidence by Boeheiming through November and December by knowing the strength of their conference will make their SOS good enough to be in if on the bubble. Padding records early shouldn’t be rewarded. I can guarantee at least one team ranked won’t make the tournament so why rank now?

Does Size Matter?

Two teams that we have believe are final four teams Pitt and Gonzaga are drastically different. Somehow Pitt's rotation doesn't have a guy over 6'8 and they only have 3 guys taller than 6'7 on the roster and only one gets any playing time. On the other hand Gonzaga's top three leading scorers are all above 6'7 and 4 out of the eight guys in their rotation are above 6'7. Just a minute isn't Pitt the bruising big bodied team and Gonzaga the more guard oriented finesse team-Yes. Each team is led by a gutsy inner city senior point guard in Levance Fields (NYC) and Jeremy Pargo (CHI) respectively.

Pitt still bruises though just height wise they are undersized. Sam Young is only 6'6 yet is one of the top forwards in the country. Dajuan Blair, the first Pitt player from Pittsburgh in thirty years is a beast downlow. He is only 6'7 but with his wide body, array of post moves and his 7'1 wingspan he is the best big man in the Big East (not named Gody). Along with Fields the big three for Pitt put up 50 a game with regularity. Then add solid role players in Gilbert Brown Tyrell Biggs and impact freshman Jermaine Dixon (from Baltimore) and you have one of the toughest most physical teams in the country.

Gonzaga on the otherhand is poised to finally crack the final four as well but with a different style. The most physical player on the team is probably Pargo or lockdown defender (and sudden 3 point god) Stephen Gray. Problem is Pargo is 6'2 and Gray is 6'4 both guards. They have 6 guys that can be in double figures on any given night including 6'5 Matt Bouldin (everyone forgets he led them in scoring last year), 6'10 Austin Daye who prefers to be a perimeter player, and 6'8 Micah Downs. Downlow they have 6'11 Josh Heytvelt who finally seems to have regained his pre-shrooms prowess (we still remember him outplaying Tyler at the Preseason NIT that year). Off the bench they have Demetri Goodson a freshman point guard out of Pargo's mold and Sacre a 7ft sophomore who will try to replace Kuso. The thing about the Zags is that Daye, Downs and Heytvelt would rather spot up than post up. Yet its effective.

Both these teams we feel will make the final four but using size as an arguement for why a team is inherently better than another doesn't neccessarily work. Just look at these teams one is a rugged tough Big East school while the other is a UMPNW (Unamed Major Program from the Northwest) that relies on drilling threebombs and midrange jumpers over postups. Both ways are successful and this year both teams we think will make the tournament. Style just is very different.

Monday

Pretty decent weekend for college basketball in general, UCONN held on against Miami to prove more Big East supremacy as the best conference in the country. Iona almost upset Wisconsin proving that after Purdue and possibly Michigan St. the Big 10 is very very down this year. Duke won the coaches vs. cancer but not before Michigan could add a statement game to their resume in beating a much worse UCLA team than the prior four years. Mercer proved that they are for real yet again vs. a major conference team this time taking Georgia Tech to overtime. USC proved that the PAC 10 is not strong this season by losing not only to Big East bottomfeeder Seton Hall and Bobby Gonzalez but to Big 12 bottomfeeder Missouri (Keyon Dooling aint walking through that door). Rutgers proved that they couldn't make it to UNC undefeated by flopping big time in losing at home to perennial bottom of the A10 (really A14) St. Boneventure (WNY stand up). Samardo Samuels beasted it up (what else is new) in Lousiville's route of South Alabama and Seton Hall added to the Big Easts great weekend with wins over USC and Virginia Tech. Xavier topped Memphis and overrated Tyreke Evans for the Puerto Rico title. Xavier still has a good core back from a team that should have made the final four last year.

Today/tonight we have some interesting games (aka thank you Maui for starting)

St. Joes v Texas
Decent first round matchup, Ahmad Nivens and Damion James are both in contention for their conferences POY (Although if Blake Griffen doesn't die he has Big 12's locked up already). A.J. Abrams is still a stud from 3 but I think Texas's toughness goes down with Conner Atchley down low although he can shoot. Look for Tasheed Carr and Nivens to put up a fight but Texas to win.

Indiana v Notre Dame
They have to travel all the way to Hawaii to play this battle for Indiana supremecy. Indiana has nothing but Tom Crean's wizardry while Notre Dame is a final four team. Gody, Tory, and Kyle will cruise to victory.

NJIT at Towson
Will NJIT get their first win in nearly two years here: NO

Syracuse v Florida
Syracuse is overrated, Florida is led in all three categories by Nick Calethas. Calethas would be a CDTN favorite but one charactersitic makes him a CDTN hated. He is a gimmick and won't dunk because he belives "2 points are 2 points". Well Nick, take a look at a Vince Carter commercial and realize that your old coach couldn't dunk. Werner and Calethas take down the Cuse.

UConn v Wisconsin
UConn proves yet again that the Big East is the best conference in the country. Kemba shuts down Trevon Hughes and lets his name be known to the non-junkies. Kemba will have to be the spark for this team to make a run come March. Also without Butch or Stiemsma Wisco has no match for Thabeet down low.

UNC v Chaminade
Chaminade can only hope for a Ralph Sampson like UVA choke from UNC. Not going to happen. Why couldn't they match up with Indiana here, at least that would've been entertaining. UNC cruises.

Kansas v Washington
Brockman is the best player in this game but Kansas has more depth and the Morris twins up fron have 10 fouls to use. Also the Pac10 is down as seen this past weekend. Look for Kansas to win but Brockman to beat as usual.

Thursday Night Preview

We only see four real games of note tonight and two of them are in NY.

Predictions:

Southern Illinois v. Duke
Contrasting styles meet. Chris Lowery is one of our favorite coaches and his squad is ready to forget last season's disastrous 18-15 record. Lowery's squads are known for lockdown defense and being feisty. Duke led by Coach K and the familiar cast of America's most hated team. Happy thought is that Paulus isn't even starting this year. Duke gets up and down and loves to put up points. We like Duke in this matchup but it will be closer than the 13 point spread.
Pick: Duke 77 So Ill 66

USC v. Seton Hall
Demar Derozan is one of the top freshman in the country this year. Tim Floyd one of the "how did I get here" slimeballs. Seton Hall is missing Brian Liang one of the most underrated players in the country last year. Seton Hall doesn't have an answer for Taj Gibson (right) downlow and Derozan and Daniel Hackett outside. Look for USC to move on.
Pick: USC 83 Seton Hall 71

Michigan v. UCLA
The Beilein era at Michigan is underway and has started 2-0. Manny Harris is a stud, one of the better players in the country but doesn't have too much help. If Michigan wants to make a tourney run this year this would be the necessary major resume win. Unfortunately for Michigan, they don't have the interior play to compete with the Bruins. The matchup at the 3 Josh Shipp v. Manny Harris is good but aside from that they will have trouble with the many weapons UCLA has. Darren Collison is the best point guard in the country and will be hard to stop.
Pick: UCLA 68 Michigan 58


Illinois v Vandy
Illinois was the unluckiest team in the country last season according to Ken Pom. Vandy seemed like the luckiest and has the biggest homecourt advantage in the country. Luckily for Illinois they are playing in Puerto Rico. Vandy has 3 stud freshman to go along with A.J. Ogilvy who is now the second most talked about Aussie in college basketball (thanks to Jay Bilas and ESPN calling Patty Mills the next Stephen Curry, despite the fact they are different players and anyone that saw the Olympics would know that Mills was already a stud). The Illini still have a young team and are athletic but may take a year more until they are poised for any type of run.
Pick: Vandy 76 Illinois 68

All Aboard the Mercer Bandwagon

We are jumping on the Mercer bandwagon right now, should have done it after the Alabama win. They just did a SEC Alabama two step in beating on the Alabama and Auburn both on the road. New coach Bob Hoffman's uptempo offense has worked so far. Give Hoffman a lot of credit schedule wise they are playing a lot of nonconference giants to make up for their ultra weak Atlantic Sun conference. Along with these two big road wins they get Georgia Tech at home on Saturday and then still have to travel to Dayton, Oklahoma St. and UCLA. Talk about a nonconference.

James Florence is so far the CDTN player of the year. Last year you may remember him matching OJ Mayo in Mercer's upset win and highlight of the year. Florence the stud junior who averaged 19 a game his freshman and sophomore years has been the go to scorer leading this team. and Western Kentucky transfer Daniel Emerson has been a beast on the boards outrebounding Jaymichael Green for Bama. In the Auburn game the most staggering statistic was that the Atlantic Sun outrebounded the SEC squad 36-18, they doubled the rebounds with a frontline of 6'6 6'6 and 6'8.

Next stop Saturday back at home, hopefully they don't let down and can get a few more marquee wins nonconference wise. If they do they could make a case for them being a At large if they run the A Sun like they should.

Tuesday Picks

Ok, so far our upset picks haven't worked out, but that will change-its early.

Games we find interesting tonight and our picks for them:

St. John's at BC-Interesting game here, a former big east rivalry renewed. A trip to the Garden on the line and making the semis of the preseason NIT. Both teams have started well and are 2-0. We like BC here because although Malik Boothe is a good pg, its a tough matchup for anyone going up against stud Tyreese Rice. Look for Rice to make sure that BC doesn't lose on their homecourt in a close game.
Pick: BC 84 St. Johns 79 and Tyreese Rice with 33

Tennesee Martin at Tennessee- While Tennesee has lost Romar Smith and Chris Lofton they still have Tyler Smith, J.P. Prince, Bobby Maze and Wayne Chism back plus superb freshman Cameron Tatum and Scotty Hopson. Tennessee Martin on the other hand has only one player you need to know Lester Hudson (right). Flat out Hudson is a beast, the 6'1 24 year old senior returned this year after putting up a good showing in the draft combine (under 6' without shoes on yet nearly a 6'9 wingspan and a 3.4 bodyfat you kidding me) He also has that will to score. Don't look for this one to be too close but look for Hudson to go off.
Pick: Tennessee 93 Tennessee Martin 77 and Lester Hudson with 38

Buffalo at Canisius- Buffalo is 1-0 Canisius 0-1 I'll take it. This rivalry will likely be close but I got the Bulls being road warriors agian and advancing to 2-0
Pick: Buffalo 72 Canisius 68

Kentucky at UNC- No Tyler no problem in this one for UNC. Don't buy into Kentucky's loss to VMI though aside from their horrible defense. It was a poor gameplan where Coach Gillispie shouldn't have tried to play VMI's style. This one will be a closer game than expected and I can assure you know one in Lexington wants to go 0-2 to start the year. Interesting matchup down low with Patrick Patterson up against Dion "Morpheus" Thompson.
Pick: UNC 85 Kentucky 77

Nevada at San Diego
A great mid-major matchup that is going under the radar. San Diego were the tourney darlings last year if it werent for Davidson. For Nevada it is the start of the Luke Babbit era. Babbit a McDonalds All American had 20 and 12 in his first game-nice start. After the Jayvale McGee travesty look for Nevada to get back to the promise land under Babbit and pick up a nice road win here.
Pick: Nevada 69-63

UAB at Arizona
In another NIT semifinal we have a good wing matchup here with Robert Vaden up against Chase Budinger. Both teams are looking for big years after last years dissapointment. For either team a win over the other would be nice for their already bubble bound resumes.
Pick: Arizona 77 UAB 68

Best Game of the Night
Davidson at Oklahoma- This is two of the best three teams in the preseason NIT (Purdue is the third) facing each other in the second round-Go Figure. Two candidates for the Wooden award in Steph Curry and Blake Griffen. Steph blew up nationally in the tournament last year but we have been a fan of his since the beginning of his freshman year. Blake is an NBA player in college, he can dominate when he wants to so is a matter if he tries or not. Either way this will be a fun game to watch no matter who wins and will set up a nice matchup v. Purdue in the NIT championship game.
Pick: Oklahoma defends home court. Oklahoma 76 Davidson 73

Tonight's Predictions

Look for Umass to put up a very good game behind a solid effort from Section 1 PTP’er Chris Lowe and play Memphis very tight. I gotta take Memphis by no more than five or six.

Purdue rolls past Eastern Michigan and advances to 2-0.

Cornell beats St Johns in one of the few games you’ll ever see an Ivy league team beat a Big East team.

NJIT loses convincingly at Penn St, proving once again they are not a division 1 team.

Kenny Horton, a former Section 1 great, scores 25 and dunks on Colgate several times en route to a convincing Central Connecticut St win.

Uconn starts the season 2- 0 after handling in state archrival University of Hartford a thirty point loss (Tha beet goes on).

In closing, not too much of an exciting CBB night, but then again November 17 rarely is. We should find out a little bit about Jim Calhoun’s rotation and how good Memphis is in the Post-CDR phase. Umass should give them a game. And big ups to Umass coach Derek Kellogg, a Calipari disciple pictured right, for scheduling both finalists last year, Memphis and Kansas. Tomorrow night should be interesting to see how much UNC beats up on Kentucky and BU against Bucknell for personal reasons.